Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 69

Miami Dolphins 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

(12:46) 5-M.Palardy punts 39 yards to TB 30, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-86-M.Hollins.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.32 EP
52% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model