Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 58

Miami Dolphins 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

(8:16) 5-M.Palardy punts 35 yards to TB 23, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-43-A.Van Ginkel.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.70 EP
65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model