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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 75

Miami Dolphins 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

What Actually Happened

(14:06) 5-M.Palardy punts 36 yards to TB 39, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 85-J.Mickens to TB 39 for no gain (86-M.Hollins).

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model