4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 16 at the 24

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(14:11) 3-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.40 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 34, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT +0.42 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model