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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 5

Miami Dolphins 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:21) 7-J.Sanders 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 5, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model