4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
LA Away

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Thursday 2021-10-07 · 20:20 Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 53.5

Win Probability

LA
59.7%
SEA
40.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.201 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.169 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • SEA defense: +0.124 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • QB edge to LA: Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.138 vs Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.368 EPA/dropback
  • LA defense: +0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 27
–
SEA 26
Projected margin: LA by 1 Projected total: 53

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

LA

No players on the report.

SEA

D'Wayne Eskridge WR Out Concussion
Chris Carson RB Questionable Neck
Benson Mayowa LB Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 26
–
SEA 17

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 09:10 TD SEA (9:10) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – SEA 6
  • Q2 01:12 FG LA (1:12) 8-M.Gay 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 3 – SEA 7
  • Q3 08:00 TD LA (8:00) 27-D.Henderson left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 9 – SEA 7
  • Q3 04:52 TD LA (4:52) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 15 – SEA 7
  • Q4 09:23 TD SEA (9:23) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 16 – SEA 13
  • Q4 06:11 TD LA (6:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-S.Michel right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 22 – SEA 14
  • Q4 02:49 FG SEA (2:49) 5-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. LA 23 – SEA 17
  • Q4 00:30 FG LA (:30) 8-M.Gay 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 26 – SEA 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (12:29) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to SEA 12, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-F.Swain to SEA 25 for 13 yards (42-M.Orzech).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 3 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 44%

    (10:41) 4-M.Dickson punts 31 yards to LA 12, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (7:19) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to SEA 19, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 2 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 78%

    (3:06) 41-A.Collins up the middle to LA 30 for -1 yards (99-A.Donald, 54-L.Floyd).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 8 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 27%

    (10:50) 6-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to SEA 17, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 88%

    (2:39) 25-S.Michel left guard to SEA 21 for 2 yards (8-C.Dunlap).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 95%

    (1:12) 8-M.Gay 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 16 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:15) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to LA 4, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-59-J.Rhattigan.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:02) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to LA 7, Center-69-T.Ott. 15-T.Atwell to LA 18 for 11 yards (59-J.Rhattigan).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 68 yards to LA 11, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-28-U.Amadi.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (14:54) 6-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to SEA 2, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-18-B.Skowronek.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 10 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%

    (2:49) 5-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 8 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (2:17) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to SEA 16, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 78%

    (:30) 8-M.Gay 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.