Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 55

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Los Angeles Rams 3

(11:15) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to LA 4, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-59-J.Rhattigan.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.48 EP
70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 55, worth -2.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model