Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 14 at the 79

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Los Angeles Rams 16

(3:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 68 yards to LA 11, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-28-U.Amadi.

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.77 EP
65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 79, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model