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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 56

Los Angeles Rams 16 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(14:54) 6-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to SEA 2, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-18-B.Skowronek.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.49 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 56, worth -2.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP