4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 29

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(3:06) 41-A.Collins up the middle to LA 30 for -1 yards (99-A.Donald, 54-L.Floyd).

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.44 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 29, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 39, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model