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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Monday 2021-10-11 · 20:15 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

IND
34.2%
BAL
65.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Lamar Jackson (BAL): +0.141 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Carson Wentz (IND): +0.003 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

IND 21
–
BAL 27
Projected margin: BAL by 6 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

IND

Isaac Rochell DE Out Illness
Kwity Paye DE Out Hamstring
Braden Smith T Out Foot
Jordan Wilkins RB Out Non-Football Illness
Rock Ya-Sin CB Out Ankle
Khari Willis S Questionable Ankle

BAL

Ronnie Stanley T Out Ankle
DeShon Elliott S Questionable Quadricep
Geno Stone S Questionable Thigh
Alejandro Villanueva T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 25
–
BAL 31

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:11 TD IND (13:11) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short left to 28-J.Taylor for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – BAL 0
  • Q2 01:39 FG BAL (1:39) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. IND 7 – BAL 3
  • Q2 00:00 FG IND (:00) 3-R.Blankenship 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 10 – BAL 3
  • Q3 14:07 TD IND (14:07) 2-C.Wentz pass deep left to 11-M.Pittman for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN [6-P.Queen]. Penalty on BAL-23-A.Averett, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. IND 16 – BAL 3
  • Q3 03:11 TD IND (3:11) 28-J.Taylor right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 22 – BAL 3
  • Q3 01:02 TD BAL (1:02) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 5-M.Brown for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 22 – BAL 9
  • Q4 12:04 FG IND (12:04) 3-R.Blankenship 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 25 – BAL 9
  • Q4 09:44 TD BAL (9:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on IND-47-A.Chesley, Defensive Holding, declined. IND 25 – BAL 15
  • Q4 00:46 TD BAL (:46) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 25 – BAL 23
  • Q5 05:29 TD BAL (5:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 5-M.Brown for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 25 – BAL 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 5 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (13:31) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to IND 23, Center-46-N.Moore. 21-N.Hines to IND 29 for 6 yards (46-N.Moore).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 5 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (11:26) 4-S.Koch punts 53 yards to IND 16, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (:19) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to IND 8, Center-46-N.Moore. 21-N.Hines to IND 21 for 13 yards (21-B.Stephens, 57-K.Welch).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 16 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 29%

    (10:15) 8-R.Sanchez punts 38 yards to BAL 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (6:22) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to IND 7, Center-46-N.Moore. 21-N.Hines pushed ob at IND 18 for 11 yards (41-A.Levine).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (4:36) 8-R.Sanchez punts 52 yards to BAL 25, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 32 for 7 yards (16-A.Dulin; 37-K.Willis). PENALTY on BAL-57-K.Welch, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 25.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (1:39) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 11 at the 37
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 62%

    (:10) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short left to 11-M.Pittman to BAL 24 for 13 yards (23-A.Averett) [99-O.Oweh].

  • Q4 IND 4th & 6 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 86%

    (12:04) 3-R.Blankenship 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 12 at the 19 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 92%

    (4:37) 3-R.Blankenship 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-C.Campbell), Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez, RECOVERED by BAL-23-A.Averett at BAL 25.