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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 19

Indianapolis Colts 25 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(4:37) 3-R.Blankenship 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-C.Campbell), Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez, RECOVERED by BAL-23-A.Averett at BAL 25.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.34 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 19, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 29, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model