Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 77

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(4:36) 8-R.Sanchez punts 52 yards to BAL 25, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 32 for 7 yards (16-A.Dulin; 37-K.Willis). PENALTY on BAL-57-K.Welch, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.02 EP
53% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 77, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model