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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 56

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(6:22) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to IND 7, Center-46-N.Moore. 21-N.Hines pushed ob at IND 18 for 11 yards (41-A.Levine).

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.77 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 56, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP