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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 72

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(13:31) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to IND 23, Center-46-N.Moore. 21-N.Hines to IND 29 for 6 yards (46-N.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +2.20 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 72, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 30, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model