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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 25

Indianapolis Colts 22 – Baltimore Ravens 9

What Actually Happened

(12:04) 3-R.Blankenship 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.64 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 35, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model