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Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Urban Meyer
Sunday 2021-09-26 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread -8.0 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

ARI
73.8%
JAX
26.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: +0.146 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to ARI: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) -0.207 vs Kyler Murray (ARI) +0.225 EPA/dropback
  • JAX defense: +0.144 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 27
–
JAX 19
Projected margin: ARI by 8 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

ARI

Joshua Miles T Out Ankle
Brian Winters G Out Not injury related - personal matter
DeAndre Hopkins WR Questionable Ribs
Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Ribs
Devon Kennard LB Questionable Hamstring
Byron Murphy CB Questionable Ankle
Marco Wilson CB Questionable Ankle

JAX

C.J. Henderson CB Questionable Groin
Tre Herndon CB Questionable Knee
Roy Robertson-Harris DT Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 31
–
JAX 19

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:48 TD ARI (6:48) 1-K.Murray left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – JAX 0
  • Q2 00:28 TD JAX (:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 17-D.Chark for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 7 – JAX 6
  • Q2 00:02 TD JAX (:02) 5-M.Prater 68 yard field goal is No Good, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. 39-J.Agnew at JAX -9 for 109 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 7 – JAX 13
  • Q3 07:43 FG ARI (7:43) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 10 – JAX 13
  • Q3 03:38 TD JAX (3:38) (Shotgun) 25-J.Robinson up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 10 – JAX 19
  • Q3 01:27 TD ARI (1:27) (No Huddle) 6-J.Conner right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – JAX 19
  • Q3 00:35 TD ARI (:35) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right intended for 86-J.Hollister INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at JAX 29. 7-B.Murphy for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play was a handoff to JAX 24-C.Hyde who then tossed back to JAX 16-T.Lawrence for the pass which was intercepted. ARI 23 – JAX 19
  • Q4 06:54 TD ARI (6:54) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 30 – JAX 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (13:38) 9-L.Cooke punts 51 yards to ARI 17, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 4-R.Moore MUFFS catch, touched at ARI 20, recovered by ARI-33-A.Hamilton at ARI 17. PENALTY on ARI-22-D.Thompson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at ARI 17.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 1 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.67 EP
    p(convert) 77%

    (12:10) 14-A.Lee punts 59 yards to JAX 23, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-28-C.Washington.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (10:21) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to ARI 17, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 4-R.Moore pushed ob at ARI 44 for 27 yards (9-L.Cooke).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 7 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 43%

    (3:34) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to ARI 1, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-5-R.Ford.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 6 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (1:14) 14-A.Lee punts 45 yards to 50, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (9:13) 14-A.Lee punts 47 yards to JAX 21, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (7:53) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to ARI 23, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 4-R.Moore.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 15 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:32) 14-A.Lee punts 43 yards to JAX 16, Center-46-A.Brewer. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 26 for 10 yards (86-D.Harris; 33-A.Hamilton).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 4 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (12:33) 9-L.Cooke punts 56 yards to ARI 16, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 4-R.Moore.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 2 at the 26
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 85%

    (9:02) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk to JAX 23 for 3 yards (27-C.Claybrooks).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 3 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 94%

    (7:43) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:50) 9-L.Cooke punts 36 yards to ARI 35, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 98%

    (8:17) 1-K.Murray right end ran ob at JAX 4 for 2 yards (44-M.Jack).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 13 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:18) 14-A.Lee punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 30%

    (:49) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 17-D.Chark to ARI 25 for 25 yards (34-J.Thompson) [44-M.Golden].