Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 59

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(3:32) 14-A.Lee punts 43 yards to JAX 16, Center-46-A.Brewer. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 26 for 10 yards (86-D.Harris; 33-A.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.90 EP
68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 59, worth -3.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model