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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Arizona Cardinals
4th & 1 at the 6
Arizona Cardinals 24 – Jacksonville Jaguars 19
What Actually Happened
(8:17) 1-K.Murray right end ran ob at JAX 4 for 2 yards (44-M.Jack).
The Three Options
GO
+3.76 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.62 EP
- 31% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 6, worth -0.33 EP
KICK
+1.65 EP
- 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT
-0.51 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
