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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 68

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 9-L.Cooke punts 51 yards to ARI 17, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 4-R.Moore MUFFS catch, touched at ARI 20, recovered by ARI-33-A.Hamilton at ARI 17. PENALTY on ARI-22-D.Thompson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at ARI 17.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 68, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 26, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model