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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 26

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(9:02) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk to JAX 23 for 3 yards (27-C.Claybrooks).

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.37 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 36, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model