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Washington Commanders

HC Bill Callahan
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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Sunday 2019-12-29 · 16:25 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 13.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

WAS
29.7%
DAL
70.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.105 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.141 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DAL defense: +0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 22
–
DAL 27
Projected margin: DAL by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

WAS

Landon Collins S Out Shoulder
Dwayne Haskins QB Out Ankle
Terry McLaurin WR Out Concussion
Troy Apke S Questionable Knee
Josh Norman CB Questionable Illness
Morgan Moses T Questionable Knee

DAL

Joe Thomas LB Out Knee
Byron Jones CB Questionable Ankle
Tyron Smith T Questionable Back
Antwaun Woods DT Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 16
–
DAL 47

Prediction missed by 26 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:44 FG DAL (7:44) (Field Goal formation) 3-K.Forbath 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. WAS 0 – DAL 3
  • Q1 05:18 FG DAL (5:18) (Field Goal formation) 3-K.Forbath 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. WAS 0 – DAL 6
  • Q2 13:41 FG WAS (13:41) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. Injury update: Dallas' DeMarcus Lawrence has a rib injury, his return is questionable. WAS 3 – DAL 6
  • Q2 11:09 TD DAL (11:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 21-E.Elliott for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 3 – DAL 12
  • Q2 04:00 TD DAL (4:00) (No Huddle) 21-E.Elliott right end for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 3 – DAL 19
  • Q2 00:38 TD WAS (:38) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short middle to 15-S.Sims for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 9 – DAL 20
  • Q3 11:58 FG WAS (11:58) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 13 – DAL 20
  • Q3 08:25 TD DAL (8:25) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 13-M.Gallup for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – DAL 26
  • Q3 07:04 FG WAS (7:04) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 16 – DAL 27
  • Q3 04:11 FG DAL (4:11) (Field Goal formation) 3-K.Forbath 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. WAS 16 – DAL 30
  • Q3 01:03 TD DAL (1:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 13-M.Gallup for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 16 – DAL 36
  • Q4 12:54 TD DAL (12:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 13-M.Gallup for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-R.Anderson]. Penalty on WAS-32-K.Ladler, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. WAS 16 – DAL 43
  • Q4 02:44 FG DAL (2:44) (Field Goal formation) 3-K.Forbath 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. WAS 16 – DAL 47

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:00) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to WAS 29, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 15-S.Sims.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 84%

    (10:46) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to WAS 25 for 2 yards (46-M.Smith). DAL-21-E.Elliott was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. WAS-46-M.Smith was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 97%

    (7:44) (Field Goal formation) 3-K.Forbath 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 18 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 81%

    (5:18) (Field Goal formation) 3-K.Forbath 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 4 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 93%

    (14:54) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass incomplete short middle to 88-H.Hentges (54-J.Smith).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 7 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (13:41) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. Injury update: Dallas' DeMarcus Lawrence has a rib injury, his return is questionable.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (9:39) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to DAL 31, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-T.Austin to DAL 30 for -1 yards (84-D.Kidsy).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 14 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:13) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 18 yards to DAL 44, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-23-D.Thompson.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 60%

    (6:41) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass incomplete deep right to 15-S.Sims [96-M.Collins].

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 8 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 87%

    (11:58) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%

    (7:04) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 79%

    (4:11) (Field Goal formation) 3-K.Forbath 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (3:04) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to DAL 40, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-T.Austin pushed ob at DAL 47 for 7 yards (34-W.Smallwood).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 30%

    (13:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass incomplete short middle to 88-H.Hentges (54-J.Smith).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (11:16) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 61 yards to DAL 12, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-T.Austin pushed ob at DAL 12 for no gain (84-D.Kidsy). PENALTY on DAL-41-R.Armstrong, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at DAL 12.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 9 at the 22 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 90%

    (2:44) (Field Goal formation) 3-K.Forbath 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 5 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (:36) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 70 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.