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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 51

Washington Commanders 16 – Dallas Cowboys 37

What Actually Happened

(13:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass incomplete short middle to 88-H.Hentges (54-J.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.65 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 51, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.36 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model