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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 10

Washington Commanders 13 – Dallas Cowboys 27

What Actually Happened

(7:04) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.79 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 10, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model