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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 19 at the 84

Washington Commanders 16 – Dallas Cowboys 30

What Actually Happened

(3:04) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to DAL 40, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-T.Austin pushed ob at DAL 47 for 7 yards (34-W.Smallwood).

The Three Options

GO -3.28 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 84, worth -4.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 42, worth -2.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model