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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 22

Dallas Cowboys 44 – Washington Commanders 16

What Actually Happened

(2:44) (Field Goal formation) 3-K.Forbath 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.73 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model