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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 39

Washington Commanders 3 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(6:41) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass incomplete deep right to 15-S.Sims [96-M.Collins].

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.59 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 39, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 48, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model