Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- BAL offense: +0.242 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- Lamar Jackson (BAL): +0.284 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- BAL defense: -0.214 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- BAL on 3 more days rest than CLE
- Baker Mayfield (CLE): +0.003 EPA/dropback in prior starts
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 16
BAL
CLE
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 11:58 TD CLE (11:58) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-D.Harris for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. 67 McCray Eligible BAL 0 – CLE 6
- Q2 01:24 TD BAL (1:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 89-M.Andrews for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – CLE 6
- Q2 00:15 TD BAL (:15) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-P.Gustin]. BAL 13 – CLE 6
- Q3 07:42 TD BAL (7:42) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 21-M.Ingram II for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 20 – CLE 6
- Q3 03:29 FG CLE (3:29) 4-A.Seibert 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. BAL 21 – CLE 9
- Q4 11:36 FG BAL (11:36) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 24 – CLE 9
- Q4 08:05 TD CLE (8:05) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 13-O.Beckham for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 24 – CLE 15
- Q4 03:45 TD BAL (3:45) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill right tackle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 30 – CLE 15
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 21%
(11:04) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 38 yards to BAL 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 16-D.Thomas.
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Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 41Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 47%
(7:16) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 89-M.Andrews.
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Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 31%
(5:29) 7-J.Gillan punts 36 yards to BAL 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 16-D.Thomas.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 70Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 54%
(9:13) 4-S.Koch punts 60 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-D.Hilliard to CLE 21 for 11 yards (10-C.Moore).
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Q2 CLE 4th & 12 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(6:55) 7-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to BAL 35, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 16-D.Thomas to BAL 35 for no gain (12-K.Hodge).
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Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 45Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 36%
(5:05) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to CLE 3, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 9 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(2:00) 7-J.Gillan punts 50 yards to BAL 30, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 16-D.Thomas ran ob at BAL 37 for 7 yards (30-D.Johnson).
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Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(1:02) 7-J.Gillan punts 50 yards to BAL 25, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 16-D.Thomas.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 10 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 76%
(3:29) 4-A.Seibert 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 13 at the 13Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%
(11:36) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.