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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 70

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(9:13) 4-S.Koch punts 60 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-D.Hilliard to CLE 21 for 11 yards (10-C.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +2.40 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 70, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 28, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP