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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 41

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(7:16) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 89-M.Andrews.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.95 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 41, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model