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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 45

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to CLE 3, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.37 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 45, worth -1.39 EP
KICK -0.16 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP