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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 52

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(11:04) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 38 yards to BAL 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 16-D.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.26 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 52, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 15, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model