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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 13 at the 13

Baltimore Ravens 21 – Cleveland Browns 9

What Actually Happened

(11:36) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.67 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 13, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 23, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model