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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2019-12-15 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

SEA
53.9%
CAR
46.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • QB edge to SEA: Kyle Allen (CAR) -0.038 vs Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.137 EPA/dropback
  • CAR defense: +0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • SEA offense: -0.022 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 25
–
CAR 22
Projected margin: SEA by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

SEA

Mychal Kendricks LB Out Hamstring
Rashaad Penny RB Out Knee
Shaquill Griffin CB Questionable Hamstring
Luke Willson TE Questionable Hamstring
Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Neck
Jadeveon Clowney DE Questionable Illness

CAR

Marquis Haynes LB Out Knee
Greg Little T Out Ankle
Greg Olsen TE Out Concussion
Garrett McGhin T Doubtful Ankle
Eric Reid S Questionable Illness
Mario Addison LB Questionable Chest

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 30
–
CAR 24

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:34 TD SEA (10:34) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson right end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – CAR 0
  • Q1 05:27 TD SEA (5:27) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-DK.Metcalf for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 12 – CAR 0
  • Q2 13:46 TD CAR (13:46) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – CAR 6
  • Q2 10:15 TD SEA (10:15) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 19 – CAR 7
  • Q3 11:40 FG CAR (11:40) 4-J.Slye 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. SEA 20 – CAR 10
  • Q3 00:32 FG SEA (:32) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 23 – CAR 10
  • Q4 07:23 TD SEA (7:23) (Shotgun) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 29 – CAR 10
  • Q4 04:58 TD CAR (4:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 30 – CAR 16
  • Q4 03:19 TD CAR (3:19) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short right to 10-C.Samuel for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 30 – CAR 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (9:50) 5-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to SEA 20, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (8:46) 5-M.Palardy punts 49 yards to SEA 34, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 7 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 30%

    (6:20) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to CAR 8, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-27-M.Blair.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (2:00) 5-M.Palardy punts 45 yards to SEA 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 15 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:38) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to 50, Center-44-N.Bellore, fair catch by 15-C.Hogan. PENALTY on CAR-47-R.Cockrell, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at 50.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 9 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 68%

    (11:40) 4-J.Slye 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 9 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 40%

    (9:19) 4-M.Dickson punts 35 yards to CAR 10, Center-44-N.Bellore, fair catch by 15-C.Hogan.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 96%

    (:32) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:47) 5-M.Palardy punts 41 yards to SEA 18, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (7:23) (Shotgun) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (4:35) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to CAR 16, Center-44-N.Bellore, downed by SEA-69-T.Ott.