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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 60

Seattle Seahawks 30 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(4:35) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to CAR 16, Center-44-N.Bellore, downed by SEA-69-T.Ott.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.87 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 60, worth -2.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model