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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 34

Carolina Panthers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(11:40) 4-J.Slye 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.46 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 34, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 44, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model