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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 49

Seattle Seahawks 20 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:20) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to CAR 8, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-27-M.Blair.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.79 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
KICK -1.47 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model