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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 45

Seattle Seahawks 20 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(9:19) 4-M.Dickson punts 35 yards to CAR 10, Center-44-N.Bellore, fair catch by 15-C.Hogan.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.60 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model