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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 18 at the 83

Carolina Panthers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(8:46) 5-M.Palardy punts 49 yards to SEA 34, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.90 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 83, worth -4.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 41, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model