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New York Jets

HC Adam Gase
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Thursday 2019-12-12 · 20:20 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 17.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

NYJ
16.2%
BAL
83.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.207 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.200 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NYJ offense: -0.101 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Lamar Jackson (BAL): +0.250 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 17
–
BAL 30
Projected margin: BAL by 13 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

NYJ

Chuma Edoga T Out Knee
Ryan Griffin TE Out Ankle
Brian Poole CB Out Concussion
Bilal Powell RB Out Ankle
Jamal Adams S Doubtful Ankle
Arthur Maulet CB Doubtful Calf
Demaryius Thomas WR Doubtful Hamstring
Quinnen Williams DT Doubtful Neck
Henry Anderson DE Questionable Shoulder
Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Ankles
Matthias Farley S Questionable Ankle
Steve McLendon DT Questionable Knee
Ty Montgomery RB Questionable Foot
Nathan Shepherd DE Questionable Ankle

BAL

Chris Board LB Out Concussion
Ronnie Stanley T Doubtful Concussion
Lamar Jackson QB Questionable Quadricep
Jihad Ward DT Questionable Elbow
Mark Andrews TE Questionable Knee
Anthony Levine S Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 21
–
BAL 42

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:55 TD BAL (7:55) (Shotgun) 21-M.Ingram II left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – BAL 6
  • Q1 02:57 TD BAL (2:57) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 80-M.Boykin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-H.Anderson]. NYJ 0 – BAL 13
  • Q2 13:32 TD NYJ (13:32) (Shotgun) 69-C.McDermott reported in as eligible. 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 82-J.Crowder for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – BAL 13
  • Q2 09:47 TD BAL (9:47) 70-P.Ehinger reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 89-M.Andrews for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 7 – BAL 19
  • Q3 05:14 TD BAL (5:14) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 15-M.Brown for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 7 – BAL 27
  • Q3 01:04 TD BAL (1:04) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 11-S.Roberts for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Lamar Jackson's 4th TD pass of game and 32nd of season. NYJ 7 – BAL 34
  • Q4 12:13 TD NYJ (12:13) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punt is BLOCKED by 93-T.Basham, Center-46-M.Cox, RECOVERED by NYJ-49-B.Bello at BAL 14. 49-B.Bello for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 13 – BAL 35
  • Q4 10:04 TD BAL (10:04) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 21-M.Ingram II for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Lamar Jackson's 5th TD pass of game. Jackson has 33 TD passes on season, tying Ravens record. NYJ 13 – BAL 41
  • Q4 07:43 TD NYJ (7:43) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 82-J.Crowder for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-M.Judon]. NYJ 19 – BAL 42

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:36) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to BAL 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 16-D.Thomas.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 76%

    (5:13) (Field Goal formation) 9-S.Ficken 49 yard field goal is BLOCKED (42-P.Ricard), Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 98%

    (2:00) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 11-Ro.Anderson (22-J.Smith).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (1:15) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to NYJ 38, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-B.Berrios to BAL 41 for 21 yards (57-J.Bynes).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (13:31) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to NYJ 24, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 32 for 8 yards (36-C.Clark; 10-C.Moore).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (11:53) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to BAL 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 16-D.Thomas.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (8:28) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to NYJ 15, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:07) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 59 yards to BAL 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 16-D.Thomas pushed ob at BAL 20 for 8 yards (51-B.Copeland).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (2:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 89-M.Andrews to NYJ 35 for 36 yards (27-D.Roberts).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (14:17) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 57 yards to BAL 3, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-16-J.Smith. New York Jets challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 14:06.)

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 8 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:13) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punt is BLOCKED by 93-T.Basham, Center-46-M.Cox, RECOVERED by NYJ-49-B.Bello at BAL 14. 49-B.Bello for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 13 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (5:26) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to NYJ 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 40 for 19 yards (10-C.Moore). PENALTY on BAL-41-A.Levine Sr., Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 40.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 41 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 52%

    (4:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle to 82-J.Crowder (44-M.Humphrey) [45-J.Ferguson].