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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 71

New York Jets 7 – Baltimore Ravens 28

What Actually Happened

(4:07) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 59 yards to BAL 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 16-D.Thomas pushed ob at BAL 20 for 8 yards (51-B.Copeland).

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.78 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 29, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model