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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 68

Baltimore Ravens 21 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(13:31) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to NYJ 24, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 32 for 8 yards (36-C.Clark; 10-C.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 68, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 26, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP