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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 7

New York Jets 7 – Baltimore Ravens 21

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 11-Ro.Anderson (22-J.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +3.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.28 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 7, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model