Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 72

Baltimore Ravens 35 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(12:13) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punt is BLOCKED by 93-T.Basham, Center-46-M.Cox, RECOVERED by NYJ-49-B.Bello at BAL 14. 49-B.Bello for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.98 EP
58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 72, worth -3.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model