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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 31

New York Jets 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(5:13) (Field Goal formation) 9-S.Ficken 49 yard field goal is BLOCKED (42-P.Ricard), Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.34 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 31, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 41, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model