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Jacksonville Jaguars

5-9 HC Doug Marrone
@
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Oakland Raiders

6-8 HC Jon Gruden
Sunday 2019-12-15 · 16:05 ET Ring Central Coliseum, Oakland US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

JAX
28.8%
OAK
71.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.151 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.193 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.090 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to LV: Derek Carr (LV) +0.133 vs Gardner Minshew (JAX) -0.055 EPA/dropback
  • LV offense: +0.012 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

JAX 21 14–28
–
OAK 26 19–33
Projected margin: OAK by 5 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 15

JAX

D.J. Chark WR Out Ankle

OAK

Hunter Renfrow WR Out Rib
Marquel Lee LB Questionable Toe
Daryl Worley CB Questionable Neck
Marcell Ateman WR Questionable Ribs
Trenton Brown T Questionable Pectoral
Erik Harris S Questionable Hamstring
Josh Jacobs RB Questionable Shoulder
Kyle Wilber LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 20
–
OAK 16

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:38 TD LV (11:38) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 16-T.Williams for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – OAK 6
  • Q1 08:12 FG JAX (8:12) 4-J.Lambo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 3 – OAK 7
  • Q1 04:56 FG LV (4:56) 8-D.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. JAX 3 – OAK 10
  • Q2 02:24 FG LV (2:24) 8-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. JAX 3 – OAK 13
  • Q2 00:02 FG LV (:02) 8-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. JAX 3 – OAK 16
  • Q3 00:32 FG JAX (:32) 4-J.Lambo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 6 – OAK 16
  • Q4 05:20 TD JAX (5:20) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short middle to 18-C.Conley for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 12 – OAK 16
  • Q4 00:34 TD JAX (:34) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short middle to 18-C.Conley for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 19 – OAK 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 6 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%

    (8:12) 4-J.Lambo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LV 4th & 7 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 94%

    (4:56) 8-D.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 JAX 4th & 7 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:55) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to LV 15, Center-46-M.Orzech, downed by JAX-40-B.Watson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 15 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:11) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to LV 44, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 12 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:06) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to LV 48, Center-46-M.Orzech. 30-J.Richard to 50 for 2 yards (22-Co.Davis).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LV 4th & 8 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%

    (2:24) 8-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:23) 9-L.Cooke punts 39 yards to LV 22, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 JAX 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (13:38) 9-L.Cooke punts 66 yards to LV 3, Center-46-M.Orzech, downed by JAX-40-B.Watson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 29%

    (9:01) 6-A.Cole punts 33 yards to JAX 16, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-34-R.Smith.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (7:56) 27-L.Fournette left tackle to JAX 42 for 1 yard (35-C.Riley).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LV 4th & 6 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 81%

    (1:48) 8-D.Carlson 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →