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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 49

Las Vegas Raiders 16 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(9:01) 6-A.Cole punts 33 yards to JAX 16, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-34-R.Smith.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.76 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.37 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP