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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 98

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(6:06) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to LV 48, Center-46-M.Orzech. 30-J.Richard to 50 for 2 yards (22-Co.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -3.94 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.41 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 98, worth -6.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

PUNT -2.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 53, worth -2.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model