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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 15

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(2:24) 8-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.53 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 15, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model