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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 69

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 16

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 9-L.Cooke punts 66 yards to LV 3, Center-46-M.Orzech, downed by JAX-40-B.Watson.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 69, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 27, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model